A faint partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data from 06:48 UTC on Apr 15. The CME is directed primarily to the North from the Earth's perspective and is likely associated with a small filament eruption near NOAA AR 3636. Current analysis suggests that this CME may have an Earth directed component, with a predicted arrival time of late on Apr 17 - early on Apr 18.

A halo or partial-halo CME was detected with the following characteristics: t0 | dt0| pa | da | v | dv | minv| maxv| 2024-04-16T10:24:07.520 | 1.0 | 236 | 178 | 1690 | 182 | 1358 | 2011 t0: onset time, earliest indication of liftoff dt0: duration of liftoff (hours) pa: principal angle, counterclockwise from North (degrees) da: angular width of the CME (degrees), v: median velocity (km/s) dv: variation (1 sigma) of velocity over the width of the CME mindv: lowest velocity detected within the CME maxdv: highest velocity detected within the CME

Solar flaring activity was at moderate level, with multiple C-class flares and three M-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was an M2.2 flare, peaking at 02:32 UTC on Apr 18, associated with NOAA AR 3643 (beta class). This region also produced two further M-class flares (M1.6 and M1.3 peaking at 22:08 UTC on Apr 17 and 07:37 UTC on Apr 18, respectively). NOAA AR 3639 is currently the largest and most complex region on disk (Beta-Gamma-Delta), but produced only low level C-class flares. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3638 (beta class) and NOAA AR 3645 (beta-gamma class). NOAA AR 3633 and NOAA AR 3634 are expected to rotate over the west limb in the next day. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible and a chance for X-class flare. A small filament eruption occurred in the southeastern quadrant from around 18:36 UTC on Apr 16, the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) appears narrow and slow and is not expected to arrive to Earth. Another filament eruption was observed in the northern quadrant, first seen in SDO/AIA 304 at around 01:16 UTC on Apr 17. An associated CME can be seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 from 02:36 on Apr 17. The CME is judged to be too narrow to reach Earth. Multiple CMEs, directed towards south-east from the Earth's perspective, were observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 starting from approximately 17:16 on Apr 17, likely related to the flaring activity from NOAA AR 3638 and 3643. Further analysis is on-going to investigate if these CMEs have Earth directed components. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. A small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole has transited the central meridian today, on Apr 18. Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so with possible enhancements in case of increased levels of solar activity over the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL: 1 to 2) during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance of reaching active levels on Apr 18 due to possible CME arrival. Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of the ICME. The total magnetic field decreased from 10 nT to the values around 6 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 360 km/s and 410 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -7 nT and 8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle varied between being directed towards the Sun to being directed away from the Sun. The solar wind conditions are expected to continue its return to the slow solar wind regime in the next 24 hours with a chance for weak enhancement on Apr 18 due to anticipated arrival of CME from Apr 15. On Apr 20 solar wind parameters might become slightly elevated due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole, that started to cross the central meridian on Apr 17.